The ISIS Solution - "Bomb the $#!& Out of Them."

   Some politicians and many of their supporters would have us level Syria in an attempt to rid humanity of the ISIS terror threat. My question is, who are you going to bomb, the Syrians? Why? What did they do? I have asked this question a few times since Nov 13 and have had some pretty blank stares directed my way. "Really !? They just gunned down a bunch of civilians!", was one indignant response. That was when it dawned on me that most people have no idea what is happening in Syria and even fewer understand who the threat really is.

   In March of 2011, following the start of the "Arab Spring" in Tunisia and Egypt, the unrest in Syria was on a high simmer. President Bashar al-Assad's authoritarian rule was merely a continuation of his families oppression that had gripped Syria for more than 30 years. A group of rebellious teens painted anti-government slogans on a wall in Damascus. They were arrested and tortured as an example to the people of Syria. The simmering unrest boiled over and hundreds of thousands took to the streets to demand that Assad step down. The government responded by attempting to crush the revolt with overwhelming force. Rebel groups struck back, sparking an all out civil war.

   Assad quickly turned to his allies for assistance as large numbers of his own National Defense Force and Syrian Arab Army deserted and joined with the rebels. The Ba'ath Brigades, The Lebanese Hezbollah, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Russia, and even North Korea sided with Assad and over the last four years have been providing armaments, troops and economic support to the besieged Syrian Arab Republic that by now has retreated into Damascus and a few cities along the Mediterranean coast and their border with Lebanon. Although the list of supporting cast members favouring Assad's leadership is extensive, even non-lethal support from the likes of China and now ground forces from Russia, Assad seems beaten.

   The rebels became more organized as the conflict raged on. In the beginning the number of rebel groups and tribal forces rising up around Syria was mind numbing. Each group or tribe claiming their own patch of ground. Controlling transport routes and crossroads throughout the country. Firefights were flaring up between the various factions as they fought for control. Eventually some form of cohesion started. Large segments of Assad's collapsed army, as many as five full divisions by some reports, formed the Free Syrian Army. They were joined by a handful of rebel groups. Still other groups formed the Islamic Front. The Army of  the Mujahedeen, Hamas, The Muslim Brotherhood and others, although technically aligned with the Syrian Opposition continued to fight on there own. Support for these rebels poured in from the UK, France, Canada, United States and more. Much of the Middle East stepped up early. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya, Jordan, United Arab Emirates and the US formed Iraqi Army all supported the rebel forces. Eventually, as the atrocities within Syria started coming to light, support started to slip. Libya, Egypt, and Jordan pulled back to varying degrees as the war dragged on.

Among the groups in the Middle East watching the Syrian Civil War rage on was a "remnant" of al-Qaeda. As the country became more fractured, leadership within al-Qaeda saw an opportunity. A contingent was sent in to assist the rebels and bolster their own ranks. Eventually Awad Ibrahim al-Badri al-Samarra'i and his followers broke away from the al-Qaeda leadership and formed the Islamic State in Syria. Samarra'i, aka: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared an Islamic Caliphate in June of 2014. Since that time "Caliph Ibrahim" has transformed the Islamic State into what they believe is the new future of the once powerful Ottoman Empire. With plans to extend the IS borders to enclose the northern half of Africa, Spain, Greece, Turkey, India and a good chunk of China. Samarra'i has nearly all the governing elements a State would require. There is a power pyramid with Sammara'i perched on the top. Much of the rest of the pyramid consists of powerful members of Saddam Hussein's defunct organization. Now we effectively have a three way war. The Islamic State vs the Government of Syria vs the Opposition Coalition. All this with a few rebel groups fighting everyone.

   This is where we learn how difficult it would be to simply "bomb the shit out of ISIS". Just like any government organization, there is a cabinet ( seven members so far identified ), a war office governed by the Military Council headed by Abu Arkan al-Ameri and includes three other members of the 9-11 organizational committee. The current land mass controlled by the Islamic State is watched over by area, or 'state' governors ( six of which have been identified ). The government structure also includes the Shura Council, the Judicial Authority, the Defense, Security and Intelligence Council. Lastly we have the Islamic State Institution for Public Information. Ask yourself if this sounds like a group of guys with AK-47s sitting in an olive grove hoping a US bomb doesn't wipe them out.

   The Islamic State is far more than just another terrorist group. This is a sophisticated State structure that is created from the blue-prints of one of the most powerful empires the ancient world had ever seen. It is the belief that bringing back the Islamic Caliphate will somehow purify the Islamic faithful and bring order back to a chaotic world. Samarra'i believes that he is the representative of the Prophet Mohammed and that, as the Caliph, his absolute power will allow him to guide the Islamic community into greatness. An organization of this scope has far too many moving parts. Built-in succession and redundancies mean that taking out the head of intelligence, for example, merely means you need to spend the next six months figuring out who took over the position.

   There is also a popular belief that the Western powers need to pull back and encourage those in the Middle East to get their own house in order. Unfortunately even among the countries surrounding Syria there is very little that they can agree on. Literally since the dawn of civilization most of the tribes and religious factions have never stood on the same piece ground together except to kill each-other for it. Although over millennia some of these groups have learned to co-exist, we should not try to fool ourselves that they are suddenly going to come together.

   Lets pretend for a moment that a coalition force was to attempt to cleanse Syria. Who should the coalition support, out of the dozens of groups struggling for power? The Government is killing everyone. The Syrian Opposition is killing Government forces and ISIS troops, while ISIS is killing everyone as well. Hamas and Hezbollah are on opposite sides. The Mujahedeen is supporting the rebels and fighting against the Palestine Liberation Army. In all this discussion we haven't even mentioned the fact that the Syrian Kurds have laid claim to Northern Iraq and Northern Syria. Turkey says that's fine as long as the Kurds release their claim on a piece of Southern Turkey. As a result of mistrust among so-called allies, we have a lack of support being provided when needed to actually have some success. Just imagine forming two armies from a group of people that not only dislike and mistrust each other but then ask those armies to fight for a piece of ground that each person believes is theirs to begin with. If each individual believes it belongs to them how do you give the winning army control over that piece of land. If it was your back yard would you be willing to have your neighbors hold sway over your use of the BBQ?

   This is what we are up against in Syria. Once ground forces have pushed ISIS out of the country, then what? Who should get control? The people of Syria made it pretty clear that they don't want Assad running the show, however they are fighting among themselves to decide who should. We obviously can't decide for them and democratic elections are only possible when you have defined choices. The solution, although obvious when sought through emotion, is so complicated that it is doomed to failure unless the people of Syria put up their hands and make their plea for outside help after forming a popular alternative to Assad. Only then can we help them get their country back and then leave them to it.